Hey, beloved tribe.
So I woke up to an update in my inbox from renowned military analyst Malcolm Nance. I trust Chief Nance above nearly every other analytical voice when it comes to this conflict. His missive opened like this:
Sometime within the next 24 to 48 hours, Vice President Kamala Harris will be pulled aside or woken up, and these words will be whispered to her:
“Defense intelligence is watching the movement of over 100 Iranian ballistic missile launchers come out of their warehouses. At approximately 2200 hours East Coast time, space sensors detected ballistic missile launches. All missiles are boosting towards Israel. They are over double the number of missiles we saw in April. US Central Command and Commander Sixth Fleet have ordered their forces to engage at the president's direction."
He goes on to present the complex configuration of the current geopolitical chessboard, in which there are far too many moving parts for any player to have full control over what unfolds.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh sent a message to Iran that went far beyond the importance of Haniyeh himself. Because Haniyeh was in what was likely the safest building in the country — a heavily guarded compound adjacent to the Saadabad Palace, used to house presidents, kings and the highest-ranking foreign diplomats. It’s in a high-end neighborhood in northern Tehran under security provided by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of a Hamas leader who became Israel’s most valuable spy, breaks this message down in the highly gratifying video below:
In the past, Hamas was expecting that the Mossad agents would come, and they would shoot or poison or inject, etc. I think this is over. It looks like one of our guys, with permission, can just press a button and someone else on the other side of the world will die in their bed at 2 am.
So this is a very clear message, and by the way, Haniyeh was in a very secure compound where diplomats and presidents, high-profile world leaders — this is where they would actually be staying when they visit Iran. So it’s a very secure place.
And how accurate: Haniyeh and his bodyguard. Were they sleeping in the same bed? I don’t know. Most likely they were too close. Too bad. But also now, for the Ayatollah: he needs to think about that. And the Iranian president needs to think about that. And if they think the president’s helicopter fell out of the sky by chance, they are mistaken.
Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr within the same 24-hour period was no less a coup. Before Shukr orchestrated the strike that killed 12 Israeli kids playing soccer in Madjal Shams last week, he was the architect of the notorious bombing of the U.S. Marines barracks in Beirut in 1983, an attack that killed 241 American soldiers.
As presidential historian Gil Troy observed in The Wall Street Journal yesterday:
At the time President Ronald Reagan feared escalation in the Middle East. He called the massacre “despicable” but didn’t retaliate. A few months later, he ordered a “redeployment” of 1,400 Marines from Beirut to U.S. Navy ships offshore. Though technically not a withdrawal, Reagan’s action sent a message of weakness.
This passivity encouraged the killers. A now-declassified Central Intelligence Agency report observed that “international terrorists had a banner year in 1985,” carrying out 784 incidents, a 30% increase from 1984. Middle East terrorism fueled that surge.
At any rate, though the U.S. State Department put a $5 million bounty on Shukr’s head after the bombing, he remained elusive for more than four decades. That is, right up until he killed 12 kids in Israel — who then dispatched him within days.
I’d be lying if I pretended this didn’t make my heart sing. I’m wildly proud of Israel’s prowess. I’m proud of their formidable intelligence. I’m proud of the ferocity they show when protecting the Jewish nation. After so many millenia of being open game for the world’s cruelty, I love Israel’s red lines in the desert sand. I love that she’s here to say: Enough already. Never again.
To those who ask: fine, but is Israel safer now? I ask in return: are any of us safe?
When I was growing up, the incessant and unpredictable terror attacks unfolding in Israel were a fearsome and alien spectacle. But the rest of the world has caught up. Now terror attacks happen everywhere on the globe. Here in America, we can’t stop our children from being shot at school, on college campuses, in nightclubs or movie theaters or nail salons or concerts or churches or synagogues.
The world is not a safe place, and neither is Israel.
But Israel’s message to the terrorists who butchered our children — None of you will ever see daylight again — has worth of its own, in this Jew’s opinion.
Years ago, I interviewed brilliant author Nathan Englander for The Forward.
We were talking about his new novel, Dinner At The Center Of The Earth. And I asked him about a passage in the book that was near and dear to my heart. That excerpt involved a conversation between then-Prime Minister Ben Gurion and an unnamed commander referred to only as The General, but The General is very clearly Ariel Sharon.
The world hates us, and always has. They kill us, and always will. But you, you raise the price,” Ben Gurion says. “Don’t stop. Don’t stop until our neighbors get the message. Don’t stop until killing a Jew becomes too expensive for even the rich and profligate man. That is your whole purpose on this earth… You, put here solely to raise the bounty hung on the Jewish head. Make it expensive. Make it a rare and fine delicacy for those with a taste for Jewish blood.
There is almost certainly nothing Israel can do to permanently defeat the idea of Hamas and its ilk. Detractors of Israel’s response to October 7th love to say that and they are likely right.
It’s possible that Israel will always be hated by her neighbors and will always have to defend, with force, her right to self-determination in the Jews’ ancestral homeland.
The two sides will go on hurting each other until the jihadists are ready to stop. Until they’re ready to live and prosper alongside the Jews. Until then, they will inflict mutual pain, but the Palestinians will remain wretched and impoverished and futureless, and Israelis will continue to thrive and be among the happiest people on earth in spite of everything. Making a different decision can only be an inside job. We aren’t in control of that process. We are only in control of defending our people, and we must, without apology.
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So I mentioned a few days ago that I’m leaving the country this weekend. In fact, I’ll be gone by 4 am tomorrow and my connection to wifi will be intermittent at best, non-existent at worst until August 12.
Then only a couple of days after we return, Charlotte and I fly to China for Worlds and I need to support her with my full attention.
I promise I will still post during August if I possibly can, but not on any regular or predictable schedule.
This will be very hard for me. The idea of not knowing what’s going on, and maybe not even knowing if or when Israel is officially at war, is almost unbearable. I’m sorry not to be able to commune with you regularly at such a time. But you and our homeland are in my heart every hour, and I will surface at every opportunity.
In the meantime, I have so many exciting things planned for September. I’ll be launching Judith Magazine and I can’t wait for that. The Never Alone Book Club will be meeting with Mimi Zieman on September 5th to discuss her beautifully Jewish memoir, Tap Dancing On Everest. The details are on the club’s Facebook page, but since I know some of you are not on the site, PLEASE take a moment to answer this poll:
Okay, fam. Shabbat shalom and I wish you the best week possible under these harrowing circumstances. I love you all and can’t wait to be back with you at my first opportunity.
Am Yisrael Chai.
By far my favorite blog. I agree 100%. No apologies. And yes, it makes my heart sing too. But you give several great reasons why to keep doing what we do and that really helps in the day-to-day conversations on the subject.
Thank you and safe travels! You will be missed!!